ROOTED IN REAL DATA Historical data. Thoughtful planning. No weather guarantees.
Florida · NOAA station reference

Destin Ft Walton AP
frost dates.

A source-backed view of historical freeze risk at this weather station. Use it to understand the season, not as a promise about your garden or this year’s weather.

Seasonal freeze reference
Modeled annual freeze occurrence: 93.1%. Date percentiles below are conditional on a cold season containing a 32°F freeze, not all years.
Last spring 32°F freeze · conditional medianFeb 5
First fall 32°F freeze · conditional medianDec 28
Days between conditional medians326 days
Uncertainty, made visible

One date never tells
the whole season.

1991–2020 station normals
32°F minimum-temperature threshold

Last spring freeze

Among cold seasons with a freeze: probability of the last occurrence on this date or later.

10%Mar 4
30%Feb 17
50%Feb 5Median reference
70%Jan 27
90%Jan 5

The 10% date is later in spring than the median: a more cautious historical reference, still not a guarantee.

First fall freeze

Among cold seasons with a freeze: probability of the first occurrence on this date or earlier.

10%Dec 1
30%Dec 15
50%Dec 28Median reference
70%Jan 6Next year
90%Jan 27Next year

The 10% date is earlier in fall than the median: a more cautious harvest-planning reference.

These percentages are conditional on a cold season containing a 32°F freeze; they are not probabilities across all years. They describe historical climate, not this season’s forecast. The spring and fall probability directions are intentionally different. A garden can be warmer or colder than the reference station.

An explicit planning choice

Try a harvest scenario.

If a historical freeze reference fits your crop and regional guidance, you can choose it as a calculator target. This action does not turn the date into a recommended harvest deadline.

Choose a planning year.

Percentiles are conditional on a cold season with a freeze. Some crops tolerate freezing; others need warmth well before it. Check crop and local guidance first.

Know the evidence

The reference
behind the numbers.

Official station name
DESTIN FT WALTON AP, FL US
NOAA station ID
USW00053853
Coordinates
30.4000, -86.4717
Station elevation
6.7 m / 22 ft
Normal period
1991–2020
Source retrieved
2026-10-02
Source modified
Tue, 27 Jun 2023 15:16:19 GMT
Original NOAA station record
Put the data in context

A baseline.
Not a forecast.

Weather stations measure a particular location. Differences in elevation, exposure, nearby water, terrain and urban heat can change conditions in an individual garden.

  • 32°F is the station air-temperature threshold; visible frost on leaves can differ.
  • Median dates still leave substantial historical freeze risk.
  • Historical normals summarize 1991–2020, not current weather.
  • Crop suitability requires regional horticultural guidance, soil warmth, cultivar and day length.
Understand the method Check the current NWS forecast
Traceable, down to the field

How strong is this reference?

Source variableHistorical dateYearsNOAA completeness
Last spring freeze · 10%Mar 422R · Representative
Last spring freeze · 30%Feb 1722R · Representative
Last spring freeze · 50%Feb 522R · Representative
First fall freeze · 10%Dec 122R · Representative
First fall freeze · 30%Dec 1522R · Representative
First fall freeze · 50%Dec 2822R · Representative

Our ordinary calendar model requires supported dates and standard/representative source quality with at least 10 years. This does not erase local uncertainty.

Explore the geographic connection

Places using this nearby reference

Connections use straight-line distance from Census internal points or explicitly labeled, reviewed city reference points. Each place page explains its reference.

A wider view

Other Florida references

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